Case Study

Commercial Opportunity Assessment: Revenue Forecasting for a Specialty Product

Posted on 05/21/2018

Our global pharmaceutical client was developing a suite of biosimilars that it intended to commercialize in several Latin American countries. The client engaged Prescient to investigate regulatory, pricing, reimbursement and purchasing models to generate volume and revenue forecasts (through 2025) and
quantify the market opportunity for the biosimilars in these countries.

Shaping Decisions | Driving Value
Prescient began the engagement by analyzing historical sales data for the client’s products and conducting interviews with members of the management team to mine existing information. Prescient then investigated the competitive, regulatory, pricing and reimbursement environments of the targeted countries using secondary and primary research. Competitive intelligence was collected, and an analog analysis conducted; additional inputs and assumptions were gathered from internal stakeholder interviews.

Prescient developed an understanding of current and future key determinants of treatment choice, treatment paradigms, patient journeys and budgetary decisions that affect the uptake of the client’s products. Prescient then created the base template, populated the model based on inputs and assumptions, and performed a sensitivity analysis under various market scenarios.

The Prescient Advantage
Prescient’s analysis found that one of the client’s products is reimbursed only for two indications in the public sector, limiting the number of patients who have access to the drug. It accounts for a significantly larger share in the private sector, where it is used for the treatment of more conditions. Another product of the client’s accounts for 70% of the public sector. Its use in the private sector is not expected to reach the same level as in the public sector and grow at a rate below that of the public sector.

Based on Prescient’s analysis and recommendations, the client was able to calibrate its long-range planning targets for the countries of interest based on expected revenue potential in both the public and private sectors. The analysis was pressure-tested under various market scenarios, such as biosimilar uptake and competitive intensity, allowing the client to prioritize potential areas of investment. The analysis was well received and will continue to act as a baseline for monitoring the ever-changing space and incorporating future developments.

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