Our client, a global specialty pharmaceutical company, was seeking to evaluate the clinical and commercial attractiveness of a potential licensing agreement for a rare disease asset in development. Prescient was commissioned by the company’s business development and licensing group to perform due diligence and determine the market attractiveness of the target asset that would be marketed in a major geographic region.

Shaping Decisions | Driving Value

The client sought to collect and analyze scientific and commercial data on the target asset and develop a firm understanding of the unmet need and how the asset would fit into the disease area. The client also wanted a comprehensive competitive landscape of  marketed and pipeline assets for the treatment of the disease.

Prescient identified the competitors that the client would face upon entering the disease market and assessed their entry timelines and regulatory strategies. Prescient also compared and analyzed the scientific data and commercial capabilities of the target assets and the current and pipeline therapeutics in the disease area. The findings were triangulated through qualitative research with payers and key opinion leaders, thereby showing how claimed advantages could translate into clinical use and pricing power.

The Prescient Advantage

Prescient’s analysis entailed future-proofing the competitive landscape through a comparative analysis of the asset’s strengths versus the likely competition at launch using a set of scientific, clinical, regulatory and commercial parameters. The research also yielded a potential asset value assessment based on key opinion leader and payer perceptions as well as a critical net present value (NPV) forecast model, both of which were used to generate evidence-based recommendations.

The company was able to make a better-informed decision based on the analysis. The major insights delivered were:

  • A competing asset in development was recognized as likely to be a “game changer” versus the target asset, which had a key differentiating feature that was unlikely to translate into a sufficient increase in clinical value
  • It was understood that payers were unlikely to accept a premium pricing strategy for the target asset
  • The independent NPV forecast was considerably lower than the client’s existing forecast for the target asset

Through this engagement, the client was able to gain a fresh perspective on the deal, and ultimately decided not to pursue it based on Prescient’s comprehensive research and insight.