The specific responses to the COVID-19 crisis outlined above are just a few examples of how individual companies have played to their strengths. Moving forward, there are further safeguards and measures that all companies will wish to consider as the scenario plays out and we move into a new reality.

Prepare for COVID-19 to return seasonally

The current outbreak of COVID-19 has taken the world by surprise; pharma companies must be prepared for future outbreaks which are likely to be unpredictable in onset and duration and could require further cycles of lockdown and relaxation until herd immunity is established.

The pharma industry, therefore, should be prepared for the responses enacted during this pandemic phase to become a permanent feature in how clinical trials and commercial activities are conducted in the future.

Prepare for the new normal

Despite the difficulties of the sudden change in operations demanded by COVID-19, the pharma business model has largely proven resilient in the face of the initial pandemic wave. Nevertheless, the global response has affected the industry’s operations from R&D through to its interaction with its customer base, providing an opportunity for the industry to assess how it operates. Given that further waves look inevitable, lasting changes are expected.

Enforced adaptations such as reduced staffing levels and remote inspections in manufacturing, virtual monitoring of operations and the real-time digital monitoring of inventory and channel movements are both necessary and economically attractive. These will likely become permanent given the potential cost savings. Other changes may come into play if repeated COVID-19 waves compromise R&D productivity.

Post the crisis, remote engagement could become a more prominent part of the interaction mix, requiring pharma companies to rethink how to best to interact with HCPs, payers and consumers to extract the greatest value.

Revolutionize R&D practices

The long-standing problem of attrition could become a bigger challenge for pharma companies if R&D is restricted by sustained or repeated COVID-19 containment measures. A recent McKinsey survey found that R&D labs have been operating at below 50% of normal capacity during the lockdown and R&D productivity has declined by 25-75%. Further alternating periods of lockdown and relaxation could represent the shape of things to come.

Recurring waves of infections would significantly disrupt pharma companies’ capacity to carry out preclinical research if they do not implement radical changes to their current practices. There could also be a productivity decline that may hamper the flow of discovery programs into clinical development. The problem of attrition, in other words, will only become more pronounced.

Clinical trials have also been significantly disrupted with trials suspended, enrolment closed or delayed, and trial sites shuttered. Restarting clinical trial activity while maintaining social distancing and clinical safety protocols, therefore, is likely to make trials more time-consuming and costly. Over the near to medium term, decisions will have to be made regarding which trials or development candidates are prioritized according to which studies are likely to deliver the greatest clinical and/or commercial impact.