Using scenario planning to keep ahead in the pharma industry
In this article for Pharma Market Europe, Stephanie emphasises the crucial role of scenario planning in staying ahead of the curve. Given the complexity of our ever-changing pharma industry, it’s essential to avoid ‘winging it.’ Steph provides a clear pathway to implementing scenario planning through a collaborative, cross-functional approach.
Stephanie highlights the COVID-19 pandemic as an example mega-disruptor, which the pharma industry had to adapt to through new channels and ways of operating in an inefficient and disconnected way. The roadmap provided in this blog will support you and your teams in navigating the evolving healthcare landscape, whilst ensuring that decisions are truly patient-centric.
Melissa Dagless previously shared her thoughts on this blog about planning in uncertain times, and she has invited me to further this thinking with a deeper dive into one of the core tools for outsmarting unpredictability.
For the last decade or so, as we’ve faced such a whirlwind of erratic challenges, scenario planning has risen in the ranks – cited in a plethora of articles that note its particular usefulness in situations where even the smallest changes can have significant consequences.
Can’t we just ‘wing it’?
In short, no, you can’t! As our industry and the world around us never cease to plateau into stability, scenario planning is now considered an essential tool for those looking to navigate uncertainty with confidence. There are too many possible disruptors to take any risks – from mobilised patients seeking information and demanding treatments, to the complex needs of our growing elderly population, to the influence of the media on new trends – our world is now far, far too complex to ‘wing it’.
To be well prepared, you must consider the plausible yet diverse scenarios that represent possible futures – and develop a set of assumptions and outcomes for each one. By anticipating potential futures and planning accordingly, companies can more easily tackle unexpected events, identify and minimise potential risks, and more expertly seize the opportunities that arise.
Let’s consider an obvious mega-disruptor: the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns and social distancing measures resulted in a complete cessation of field-based activities, especially in hospitals and with anyone involved in respiratory or ER care. To adapt to this new reality, companies had to find new channels and ways of operating, such as virtual meetings and remote detailing. The scramble was inefficient, disconnected, and stressful, and it has led to our current ‘post-COVID’ reality, which presents more new challenges across many areas, from backlogs to pricing. This experience has highlighted the importance of scenario planning and the need to be prepared for unexpected disruptions.
How do we even begin to implement this?
There is a clear pathway to implementing scenario planning in our industry, and it requires a collaborative and cross-functional approach:
- Define Your Assumptions: Start by identifying the internal and external factors that could shape the future of your business. This includes regulatory changes, emerging technologies, competitors and shifts in customer behaviour.
- Involve All Perspectives: Work cross-functionally to involve all perspectives, including patient safety, regulatory, digital, medical, field-based teams, and marketing. By getting input from all areas of the business, you can develop a more comprehensive set of scenarios.
- Align on Level of Volatility/Uncertainty: Ensure there is a shared understanding of the degree of uncertainty surrounding your business or brand, and communicate this to senior management. For example, a long-term chronic use of insulin for diabetes may have lower volatility compared to seasonal spikes in smoking cessation treatments.
- Identify Risks or Potential Disruptors: Consider the factors that could significantly influence your therapy area, from macro to micro, strategic to tactical, internal and external, positive and negative.
- Foster a Positive Mindset: Encourage teams to view scenario planning and risk management as opportunities for preparedness and resilience, rather than exercises focused on what might go wrong.
- Set Regular Check-Ins: Review scenarios on an ongoing basis and update them as circumstances change. This helps you remain agile and adapt quickly as the market shifts.
- Define Lead Indicators: Establish clear signals that suggest change or disruption may be occurring, so you know when to reconvene and revisit your strategy.
- Foster Different Thinking: Bring in perspectives from outside the immediate team or function to challenge assumptions and generate fresh ideas.
Ultimately, scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but rather creating a range of plausible futures and being prepared for whatever comes our way. By embracing scenario planning as a critical component of your strategic toolkit, it is possible to stay ahead of the curve and navigate the evolving landscape of healthcare.
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