In a world that feels increasingly volatile, the recent EY analysis1 of potential Middle East conflict scenarios highlights a truth we in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry cannot ignore; global events far beyond our manufacturing sites, offices and scientific congresses can disrupt our progress overnight.
Discussing this with my colleagues, while no one can predict precisely how a geopolitical crisis will unfold, we are all aligned that we can (and must) equip ourselves with the right mindsets, systems, and planning approaches to mitigate the risks and safeguard both patients and business continuity. What’s more, in times where anxiety is high within our teams, particularly when events feel entirely outside our control, planning can offer something quietly powerful: a shared sense of preparedness, and a way to channel nervousness into constructive thinking.
At Prescient, we’ve long advocated for proactive scenario planning as a vital enabler of resilient brand strategies and robust launch excellence. The insights in EY’s scenarios reinforce just how relevant this remains today.
How could geopolitical conflict scenarios impact our pharma industry?
At first glance, the idea of a Middle Eastern conflict might feel peripheral to a pharmaceutical pipeline headquartered in Boston, Cambridge or Tokyo. But if we examine the potential chain reactions, the implications of geopolitical shifts are very real:
- Economic headwinds and currency volatility: An extended conflict could suppress economic growth in key regional markets and trigger wider currency geopolitical instability. For pharmaceutical companies with revenue streams in local currencies, this could undermine forecasts and complicate P&L planning.
- Oil and energy price shocks: Our industry relies on complex, energy-intensive manufacturing and global logistics. A sudden spike in oil prices would raise the cost of raw materials, production, cold-chain transport and distribution leading to drug shortages. For the biotech industry with tight funding cycles, unexpected operating cost surges could threaten runway length and investor confidence.
- Trade route disruption: Many global supply chains still rely on routes through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. Blockages or rerouting could lead to longer shipping times for APIs, excipients, packaging materials and even clinical trial supplies, jeopardising pharmaceutical production schedules and patient access.
- Workforce safety and operational disruption: For companies with teams, partners or sites in affected geographies, conflict zones create immediate human risk, potential site closures, and delays in operations. But beyond the practical implications, we must also acknowledge the emotional toll on individuals and teams. Turbulence in geopolitics can create deep instability and anxiety, particularly when events unfold entirely beyond our control. In this context, scenario planning offers more than operational preparedness; it can help to calm nervousness and bring teams together around a proactive approach. We cannot prevent global events, but we can do something constructive by thinking ahead as a team, to provide a measure of reassurance and empowerment that can be grounding in uncertain times.
- Investor sentiment and regulatory focus: Broader macroeconomic volatility can make investors more cautious and regulators more vigilant about security of supply and local stockpiling requirements for pharmaceuticals, adding extra compliance pressures at a time when resources may already be stretched.
The critical role of scenario planning
So, what should we, as leaders, do to avoid sleepwalking into risk exposure?
While none of us possesses a crystal ball, at its core, scenario planning in the pharmaceutical industry builds agility into our teams and strategies, and equips us by testing plausible futures so that we can avoid being caught unprepared or disrupting the supply chain resilience.
In our previous articles2, we have shared practical ways to strengthen scenario thinking within brand planning and launch excellence processes. For example:
- Build scenarios into the annual brand planning cycle: Don’t just update the base forecast; stress-test your plans against multiple ‘what ifs’. For example, how would you maintain pharmaceutical supply continuity if a critical shipping lane were blocked for three months? What would be your response if manufacturing costs rose by 20% overnight?
- Map risks across the seven levers of launch excellence: As we’ve written previously, true launch excellence extends beyond just the marketing strategy. It spans supply chain, regulatory, market access, commercial strategy, external stakeholder engagement, team readiness and governance. Each of these levers needs to be robust enough to flex under pressure.
- Empower local markets to plan with nuance: Global teams can outline broad scenarios, but local affiliates often have the best sense of realistic local risks and mitigation tactics. Creating a culture where scenario planning is embedded at country level ensures a faster and more informed response when events do occur.
- Rehearse decision-making under stress: One of the best ways to build organisational resilience is to simulate crisis scenarios through tabletop exercises or cross-functional workshops. This is not a theoretical exercise: it clarifies roles, highlights blind spots and gives senior leaders the confidence to act decisively when time is tight.
Turning risk & uncertainty into competitive advantage
At Prescient, each of us are compelling leaders we speak with across the pharmaceutical industry to help their organisations shift mindsets, moving away from the idea that robust scenario planning is a cost centre, and re-framing it as a source of competitive advantage. Companies that can keep critical products on shelves, protect patient health and communicate calmly under instability earn trust that lasts long after a crisis has passed.
Indeed, as the EY article reminds us, there is opportunity in well-prepared resilience. If conflict de-escalates or supply routes reopen, businesses that have maintained strong relationships and clear contingency frameworks can pivot quickly to regain market share and drive growth.
For biotech innovators, who often have leaner teams and tighter funding, scenario planning is equally essential. It can help prioritise spend, communicate risks transparently to investors, and secure the confidence needed to navigate turbulent macroeconomic conditions.
Practical steps you can take now to build supply chain resilience
Reflecting on the EY scenarios and our own decades of experience globally, we urge every pharmaceutical and biotech leader to revisit the following questions this quarter:
- Have we clearly defined the most plausible scenarios that could disrupt drug production supply chains or patient access in each key market?
- Do our brand teams and launch teams routinely stress-test their plans against macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical events?
- Are our partners, from CDMOs to distributors, aligned on escalation protocols and contingency stockpiling if routes are disrupted?
- Do we have a clear internal crisis governance framework, with empowered decision-makers and transparent reporting lines?
- Are our investor and external communications plans robust enough to maintain trust during periods of instability?
- Have we created space for teams to feel involved in proactive scenario thinking – to design operationally, build shared confidence and reduce instability during turbulent times?
If the answer to any of these is ‘no’, this is not a reason for alarm; It’s a timely opportunity to strengthen foundations.
Our commitment at Prescient
We believe scenario planning must be embedded not only at the corporate level but within every brand plan, launch roadmap and supply chain strategy. Over the past two decades, we have supported pharmaceutical and biotech companies worldwide to build this muscle, ensuring that when the unexpected strikes, patient needs stay at the centre, and brands remain resilient.
Geopolitical uncertainties will continue to shape the pharma industry’s reality. It is our responsibility, as leaders, to ensure that we do not just respond reactively, but anticipate, prepare and thrive through it.
The Prescient team stands ready to support you and the industry as a whole in turning uncertainty into a catalyst for stronger, more agile growth.
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